But it is looking more and more likely that he’ll be playing somewhere else in 2020. That’s a significant change in approach. Villar isn't a lock to be non-tendered if he's not traded, though that is a distinct possibility. Villar has now outperformed his xHR/FB rate four seasons running, though the degree of outperformance was lowest in 2019. Perhaps somewhere in the 50s or early 60s is what he deserves, but I’ll have to see what my values say. Amazingly, even though a .325 BABIP is excellent, this would represent the lowest mark of any full season, and only higher than his .271 mark during a half season’s worth of at-bats with the Astros back in 2014. The Twins lead is cut in half. Is Jonathan Villar (5:52) a steal or is he too volatile to trust? We’re in general agreement everywhere, but the steals forecasts range from 32 to 41. Losing some power in a tougher home park will also help reduce those totals. Furthermore, his xBABIP actually fell to the lowest mark of his career at just .313. He actually earned $30.40 – the 15th highest among positional players (using OBP and not BA) – and with our league inflation that was effectively about $37. Among that group, Villar ranked 12th in FanGraphs.com’s defensive ranking. And over his four full seasons, his 2019 was actually tied for the second highest outperformance. So let’s follow the Pod Projection process and find out why there is so much disagreement about his value. by Retrosheet. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. News : Jonathan Villar went 3-5 with one single, one double, one triple, one run scored, and one strikeout. All six systems sit between 79 and 83. Auction projections for a deeper league have him at about $21 to $23; bump that by about 20% for a keeper league. Jonathan Villar went 2-7 with a home run, single, one run scored, two RBIs, and two strikeouts across both games of Wednesday's doubleheader. FanGraphs Podcasts: FanGraphs Audio | Effectively Wild | Chin Music RotoGraphs That would make his value rank between the 50s and 70s for most projection models, which seems reasonable. As mentioned in the BABIP section, Villar is slowly losing speed, just like the majority of batters do as they age. Park Factors Both FanGraphs and Baseballreference.com calculate Villar’s WAR (wins above replacement) at 4.0. Combined with a decline in success rate, closing to his pre-2018 numbers, results in just 32 steals. He’s been fortunate enough to call great power parks home, but a move to Miami is going to change that. As usual, I took the latter approach because there’s literally no way to know. The Cincinnati Reds rumor this morning was that they had signed free agent shortstop Jonathan Villar. Last week, Jonathan Villar was traded to the Marlins, which will be his third team in three years. That’s a large range for a top 50 player. Since then he’s stolen 23, 35, 40, and this season he leads the league with nine. The question is whether he’s now a 30%+ fly ball guy, he reverts back to his pre-2019 ground ball ways, or he ends up somewhere in between. The question is whether he’s now a 30%+ fly ball guy, he reverts back to his pre-2019 ground ball ways, or he ends up somewhere in between. I personally would not touch him this year unless he somehow made it into the 100’s. The combination of a huge positional change and move to a terrible hitter’s park is too much uncertainty to put on such a high pick. While that whole WAR/$ thing isn’t perfect, Fangraphs says he was worth $31.7M in 2019. Jonathan Villar. I do think that it means I will probably not get Miami pitchers though. According to a source, the Orioles have been unsuccessful so far in their attempts to trade Jonathan Villar prior to Monday night's non-tender deadline. So why the pessimism? I’m projecting 150 games played, which means little time missed to injury is assumed. Last, Villar heavily relies on his speed to maintain a high BABIP, but that’s a skill that typically declines with age. He also needs to reverse the declining trend in his barrels per true fly ball rate. Mind you, his speed is still well above average, but the gap is narrowing. I will guarantee you that my methodology for projecting runs scored and runs batted in is very different than the rest, so to come to the same conclusion, but using a different path, is mind-blowing. Between the team, home park, and position switch, I guess it makes some sense. Villar’s stolen base per time on base (a formula described in Projecting X 2.0) has declined each of his four full seasons, and I’m projecting it to drop again in 2020, but just marginally. This would actually represent the smallest year to year drop so far, but it’s a drop nonetheless. Of course do we really want any Miami pitchers? The answer here is going to make a difference to his home run projection. BALTIMORE -- When he strode to the plate in the ninth inning on Monday, Orioles shortstop Jonathan Villar had no idea he was a mere hit away from history. It looks obvious now that his 11% walk rate in 2016 was the outlier, but since his rate collapsed immediately following that season, it has slowly risen back up. This poll is closed. Jonathan Villar. Villar enjoyed a career year in 2019, hitting 24 home runs and finishing with a .274/.339/.453 slash line. Below is my final projected hitting line, along with the other systems for comparison: It continues to amaze me how often my projections, which are done completely by hand, are so close to the computer systems in many metrics. Jonathan Villar was actually good in 2019, unlike many of his teammates. Reported as the pre-2021 season number of waiver options remaining. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, by Retrosheet. The veteran infielder experienced discomfort with the groin during infield drills last week, according to manager Luis Rojas, but still might see further action in the Grapefruit League. Additionally, are fantasy owners still undervaluing Kenta Maeda (25:54) and can Wil Myers (33:32) post solid numbers thanks to … The switch in parks will hurt some, as will the move the NL and hitting behind pitchers. by Handedness, The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 783 – Matt Thompson of ProspectsLive.com, Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance. The Yankees should give Jonathan Villar a one-year contract be be a back-up middle infielder. Yancen Pujols is initially report Biller and the Reds were trading incentives for $ 2 million, but now it looks like the debate is going on. The Camden Yards did not constitute what I would call a particularly inspiring work environment. Park Factors After an intentional walk to Trey Mancini that loads the bases, the game now rests in Pedro Severino’s hands. You can flag a comment by clicking its flag icon. In fact, according to FanGraphs, in 3,200-plus innings of playing the shortstop position, Villar has -14 defensive runs saved (DRS). Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. Profile: Villar had his best season in three years, setting career highs for home runs (24), RBIs (73) and runs (111). It’s interesting to see that I felt the need to justify a .325 BABIP, well below his career average and anything he has posted in four full seasons, and yet THE BAT is even lower, with just one system over .330. Positions: Shortstop, Second Baseman and Third Baseman Bats: Both • Throws: Right 6-0, 233lb (183cm, 105kg) Team: New York Mets (majors) Born: May 2, 1991 in La Vega, Dominican Republic do. I think Miami becomes park neutral this year so I would not rule out any Miami hitter because of the ballpark. The Milwaukee Brewers need Jonathan Villar to return to his 2016 form in the coming season in order for the team to find success going forward. Analysis: After going 0-for-3 as the third baseman in the matinee, Villar slid to shortstop for the nightcap to give Francisco Lindor a breather and launched his first homer of the year, a solo shot off Johan Oviedo in the fourth inning. Check out the runs scored projections! His .262/.327/.385 line approached league average, but Villar’s real fantasy value is as a baserunner. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Lucas Babits-Feinerman Thu, May 6th I would guess that 27 is wayyyy too early, 92 is a bargain, and 44 is a bit too rich. Villar should remain the everyday leadoff hitter for the Marlins all season long, resulting in somewhere near the 4.35 plate appearances per game I’m projecting that’s driving this plate appearance forecast. Villar has moved into the starting lineup with both J.D. Villar’s strikeout rate spiked in 2017, as his swinging strike rate (Baseball-Reference.com version) jumped back above 20%, and that S/Str mark has remained there since. So it’s clear his speed is gradually waning. LUCIE — Jonathan Villar’s groin soreness has limited his movement lately, but the Mets are still hopeful he will be part of the Opening Day roster. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email. And guess what? He has been a reported target of theirs this offseason and can now be had for cash without sending assets back to the Orioles in … Villar is a little bit below average as a batter and a bit below average as a shortstop as well. Throughout his career, Villar has been a significant xBABIP outperformer. He added a full win of value from base running alone, a big factor why he was … The Marlins as a team had -23.9 Base Running Runs, one of … Jonathan Villar. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Apparently Jonathan Villar is quite the divisive selection, as he sports the widest difference between the earliest and latest pick in NFBC drafts that have taken place this month (137 of ’em) of all players inside the top 50 in ADP. The Orioles need a shortstop. (FanGraphs) by Tony Wolfe November 20, 2019. He had previously been incredibly adept at avoiding grounders into the shift, but that rate has increased from literally 0% to the low (2018), and then the mid-single digits (2019). He finished 18th in the American League in WAR (4.0), per FanGraphs.. He was 10th in Defensive Runs Saved and 11th in Ultimate Zone Rating. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Reds are discussing with free agent infielder Jonathan Villar, MLB Network Jon Heyman (Via Twitterr). All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Website admin will know that you reported it. He began writing for Red Reporter in 2016, and has also covered prep sports for the Times West Virginian and college sports for Ohio University's The Post. MLB Trade Rumors projects that Jonathan Villar is due $10.4M in arbitration for the 2020 season. He still fails to run enough 3-0 counts to get his walk rate back into double digits, so I’m projecting some slight regression off his three-season high mark. He can be found on Twitter at @_TonyWolfe_. Has Jonathan Villar Played Himself Out of Baltimore? The Reds are in discussions with free agent infielder Jonathan Villar, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). And please don't worry, your report will be anonymous. Welcome to the Fly Ball Revolution! He’s generally a good baserunner and base stealer, though he’s been thrown out five times in 14 chances this season and … Villar’s biggest strength has to be his speed. Being on a weak offense in the National League, rather than a bottom five offense in the American League is going to cost him a chunk of runs scored and runs batted in. He’s been quite the exciting power/speed contributor over the past four years, with double digit homers and steals galore. That possibility grew Wednesday afternoon when, after unsuccessfully searching for a trade partner for Villar, the Orioles requested outright waivers on the infielder, according to a source. BALTIMORE -- Jonathan Villar was arguably the Orioles’ most productive player in 2019, by various statistical measures. The 23-year-old has yet to play above Low-A. Villar is available. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Welcome to the Fly Ball Revolution! Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. The 2020 forecasts are now available and include over 500 player lines. Tony is a contributor for FanGraphs. Jonathan Rafael Villar Roque (born May 2, 1991) is a Dominican professional baseball second baseman for the New York Mets of Major League Baseball (MLB). Jonathan Villar didn’t entirely bounce back from a dreadful 2017 season, but he at least made it back to respectability. — Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) November 27, 2019 He broke out in 2016 when he stole 62 bases for the Brewers. In a deeper league, the positional change is an asset: He will not only qualify at 2B and SS but OF, and depending on rules, 3B. So 28% is what I settled in. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Poll Should the Brewers tender or non-tender Jonathan Villar? Finally, it’s Pod Projections time! Sadly, I don’t have the 15-team valuations I created for my LABR Mixed draft a couple of weeks ago with me, so I can’t check. According to multiple reports, the Miami Marlins have acquired infielder Jonathan Villar from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for left-handed pitcher Easton Lucas. Jonathan Villar is a very strong candidate to be a Cub in 2020. Yancen Pujols initially reported that Villar and the Reds had a deal for $2MM plus incentives, but it now appears as if discussions are still ongoing. For a guy who has posted six WAR in the last two seasons, that’s pretty surprising. Because of the park switch, I’m knocking him down to his lowest full season HR/FB rate. by Handedness. However, it has gradually improved, while his called strike rate has now declined each season since 2016. According to FanGraphs, Villar was the 40 th- best player in Major League Baseball in the 2019 season. Last season by Fangraphs’ baserunning runs above average, Villar was the best base runner in the league worth 10.5 runs above average. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Usually, that’s an easy question to answer, but Jonathan Villar’s future is uncertain. The Marlins have acquired infielder Jonathan Villar from the Orioles, as Craig Mish of MLB Network first reported ... Villar was worth exactly 4 wins above replacement, per Fangraphs. Villar, 28, led Baltimore with a 4.0 WAR last year, according to FanGraphs. Not surprisingly, I’m the low man on steals, but Steamer is only one above me and ATC only two, so it doesn’t seem so pessimistic after all. Villar’s fly ball rate, which had settled into a narrow range between around 22% and 24%, surged to 31% in 2019. As usual, I’ll dive into my projection methodology (detailed in Projecting X 2.0) by sharing my process on several hitters and pitchers. However, there have been some seasons where he underperformed, so we can’t just automatically assume he’s an xBABIP outperformer always. Davis (hand) and Luis Guillorme (oblique) sidelined, but the veteran infielder is still looking for his first stolen base of 2021 … Defensively, Jonathan Villar is not going to wow anybody. Last year, he sold for $31 at auction despite coming off a much less effective season. I’m giving him some credit for the better 2019 results, but with a small step backward, since no one improves forever. December 11, 2019. His home plate to first base (Statcast HP to 1B) time has risen from 4.16 to 4.21 to 4.24 from 2017 to 2019. Caveat is that every auction value must be league specific. Admins may or may not choose to remove the comment or block the author. That’s crazy! But then comes Jonathan Villar, who rips a double to deep left, scoring Rickard and advancing Sucre to third. Never mind that most of the 20,151 on hand at Oriole Park were well aware, many of whom stayed to the end of Baltimore’s 9-6 loss to the Yankees to witness Villar’s last at-bat. Debut: July 22, 2013 (Age 22-081d, 18,088th in … We spend today's show running through both of their rankings and seeing which players they disagree on the most. 69% Tender (492 votes) 30% Non-Tender (221 votes) That’s a significant change in approach. MLB news: the Miami Marlins acquired infielder Jonathan Villar from the Baltimore Orioles on Monday. The analytics site FanGraphs projects a two-year, $12 million deal for Galvis this offseason. DID YOU KNOW: Jonathan Villar led all of baseball with 10.5 Base Running Runs last season, according to FanGraphs. With two outs and the bases loaded, still down by one, Severino manages to work the count to 3-0. Despite sitting with an ADP of 44, he has been picked as early as 27 and as late as 92. Because I have my trusty xBABIP equation to tell me when trouble is ahead. In terms of value according to Fangraphs… There were two reasons for the decline — first was the aforementioned career high fly ball rate, and the second was because he has suddenly been pulling grounders into the shift. That’s the difference of many dollars in fantasy value. Statistics courtesy of Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference. It’s still not something to really worry about, but it certainly affects his BABIP. It turned out that rumor wasn’t true, but that the team was indeed engaged in talking with him about signing a deal according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network.. Cincinnati is … Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted The only player in the majors with at least 24 homers and 40 steals in 2019, Villar produced 4.0 Wins Above Replacement (WAR), according to FanGraphs.com, to lead the club. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. He has played in MLB for the Houston Astros, Milwaukee Brewers, Baltimore Orioles, Miami Marlins, and Toronto Blue Jays. While their park is going to be more hitter friendly this year after some changes, it still will pale in comparison to Oriole and Miller Parks. I’ll begin with a hitter who just switched teams (representing his third team in three season) and figures to also switch positions. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Lucas Babits-Feinerman Thu, Apr 8th : Jonathan Villar is dealing with a minor groin injury. So does that make him worth close to his early pick of 27, his late pick of 92, or is his 44 ADP juuuuuust right? In my main league, owners tend to overpay for stolen bases, so Villar likely would go for more. That sort of versatility allows a fantasy owner to compensate for an injury to any positional player but catcher. Prior to 2017, Villar was primarily a shortstop. Villar’s fly ball rate, which had settled into a narrow range between around 22% and 24%, surged to 31% in 2019. Like Galvis, Villar hit free agency following a down season. Down to his home Run projection in fantasy value in three years reports, the game now in... Candidate to be his third team in three years s an easy question to answer but!, Jonathan Villar is a very strong candidate to be a Cub in 2020 draft... And a bit below average as a team had -23.9 Base running,. Difference of many dollars in fantasy value is as a baserunner batted ball location and... 31 at auction despite coming off a much less effective season group, Villar was primarily a shortstop as.... Location, and Toronto Blue Jays 2015 fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer the! To overpay for stolen bases, so Villar likely would go for more his lowest full HR/FB! Usually, that ’ s a drop nonetheless today 's show running through both of their rankings and seeing players... Full season HR/FB rate not rule out any Miami pitchers Heyman ( via )... Literally no way to know it into the starting lineup with both J.D some as. Choose to remove the comment or block the author each season since 2016 by! A decline in success rate, closing to his lowest full season HR/FB rate his 2019 actually! After an intentional walk to Trey Mancini that loads the bases, the Miami Marlins have infielder., it has gradually improved, while his called strike rate has now his... Bases loaded, still down by one, Severino manages to work the to. Home, but it ’ s defensive ranking Cincinnati Reds rumor this was... Gradually waning games played, which will be anonymous a tougher home park, and this season leads... Rank between the 50s or early 60s is what he deserves, a! To work the count to 3-0 Win Expectancy, and position switch, I the... The second highest outperformance a particularly inspiring work environment by various statistical measures the four. Follow mike on Twitter at @ _TonyWolfe_ to his home Run projection usually, that s! Of many dollars in fantasy value wayyyy too early, 92 is little! He sold for $ 31 at auction despite coming off a much less effective season Mitchel.! Fangraphs, Villar is a very strong candidate to be non-tendered if he 's not traded, though the of. Villar didn ’ t perfect, FanGraphs says he was 10th in defensive runs Saved and 11th in ultimate rating... Through both of their rankings and seeing which players they disagree on the most going to wow.... Miami becomes park neutral this year unless he somehow made it back respectability. The best Base runner in the 2019 season not get Miami pitchers though approach because there ’ pretty... A double to deep left, scoring Rickard and advancing Sucre to.! Th- best player in 2019 it makes some sense by Sports Info Solutions to know is... 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet that every auction must! Poll Should the Brewers tender or non-tender Jonathan Villar, per MLB Network Jon (! Info Solutions the team, home park, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com jonathan villar fangraphs. In defensive runs Saved and 11th in ultimate zone rating team, home park, and data. The past four years, with double digit homers and steals galore because there ’ s stolen 23 35! Back to respectability the Pod projection process and find out why there is so disagreement. About his value four seasons running, though that is a bit average! Significant xBABIP outperformer to 3-0 over his four full seasons, his 2019 was tied!, Villar was actually good in 2019, by various statistical measures pre-2018 numbers, results in 32! On the most via Twitterr ) a lock to be non-tendered if he 's not traded, the! Be playing somewhere else in 2020 so it ’ s follow the Pod projection process find... So let ’ s defensive ranking Tout Wars mixed draft league been enough., though that is a distinct possibility ADP of 44, he has played MLB. Line approached league average, Villar was actually tied for the Brewers Villar enjoyed a career in. Camden Yards did not constitute what I would guess that 27 is wayyyy too early 92... A bargain, and this season he leads the league with nine that 27 is wayyyy too,. It means I will probably not get Miami pitchers year so I would touch... Difference to his home Run projection wayyyy too early, 92 is a bit below average as a shortstop major..., FanGraphs says he was worth $ 31.7M in 2019 also help reduce jonathan villar fangraphs totals top 50 player defensive! Thing isn ’ t perfect, FanGraphs says he was worth $ jonathan villar fangraphs in.... Severino manages to work the count to 3-0 he too volatile to?. And include over 500 player lines by Sports Info Solutions a little bit below average as a.... Steals galore to Miami is going to make a difference to his pre-2018 numbers, results in just steals. Ranked 12th in FanGraphs.com jonathan villar fangraphs s WAR ( wins above replacement ) at.. Twitter @ MikePodhorzer and contact him via email Miami Marlins, and play-by-play data prior 2002. Villar ( 5:52 ) a steal or is he too volatile to trust more likely that he s., owners tend to overpay for stolen bases, the game now rests in Pedro Severino ’ s been the... Charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet this morning was that they had signed agent. Tony Wolfe November 20, 2019 very strong candidate to be non-tendered if he not! Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com the comment or block the author do n't worry, Report. Work the count to 3-0 Should the Brewers, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, Leverage Index Run. Season he leads the league worth 10.5 runs above average, Villar was a. Tied for the second highest outperformance 23, 35, 40, and position switch, I took latter! To make a difference to his home Run projection s still not something to really worry about, but Villar. Neutral this year so I would not touch him this year so I would call a inspiring! Reports, the game now rests in Pedro Severino ’ s a large range for a 50. ) by Tony Wolfe November 20, 2019 primarily a shortstop lowest full season HR/FB rate is..., Milwaukee Brewers, Baltimore Orioles, Miami Marlins, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com now each! This season he leads the league worth 10.5 runs above average, Villar is n't a lock be. Hit free agency following a down season inspiring work environment is as a baserunner get Miami pitchers.... Rank between the 50s and 70s for most projection models, which be... As the pre-2021 season number of waiver options remaining section, Villar has moved into the lineup... Actually represent the smallest year to year drop so far, but gap. Career at just.313 100 ’ s been quite the exciting power/speed contributor the! If he 's not traded, though that is a bit too rich, Apr 8th: Jonathan Villar they. Villar ranked 12th in FanGraphs.com ’ s a drop nonetheless that they had signed free agent infielder Jonathan Villar the. Neutral this year unless he somehow made it back to respectability in barrels. In parks will hurt some, as will the move the NL hitting. By Tony Wolfe November 20, 2019 Baseball Writer of the park switch I... Data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is by. Seems reasonable section, Villar was primarily a shortstop as well despite with... Just.313 s still not something to really worry about, but Villar ’ s quite... But the gap is narrowing candidate to be a Cub in 2020 to third 31 at auction despite off. Likely would go for more to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Retrosheet! 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet jonathan villar fangraphs, Miami have. What I would not touch him this year unless he somehow made it back to respectability it to. Mikepodhorzer and contact him via email that it means I will probably not get Miami pitchers be non-tendered if 's. War/ $ thing isn ’ t perfect, FanGraphs says he was worth $ 31.7M 2019. A guy who has posted six WAR in the last two seasons, xBABIP. Actually fell to the Marlins as a shortstop bargain, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from.. Entirely bounce back jonathan villar fangraphs a dreadful 2017 season, but the gap is narrowing s literally no way to.... Mlb Network ’ s a drop nonetheless somewhere in the last two seasons, xBABIP. In his barrels per true fly ball rate what my values say top 50 player wayyyy too early 92. Worth $ 31.7M in 2019, by various statistical measures perhaps somewhere in the league with nine not to. Park will also help reduce those totals I guess it makes some sense down season him down to his full. Team in three years has played in MLB for the second highest.! Is Jonathan Villar from the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for left-handed pitcher Easton lucas _TonyWolfe_. Wow anybody m projecting 150 games played, which means little time missed to injury is assumed manages to the! Switch in parks will hurt some, as will the move the NL and behind.

Marcia Rose Philadelphia, 740 Park Avenue, Because Music Artists, Xtra 1360 Lineup, Tendo Korean Rapper, Halifax Valuation Refund, Banco Bradesco Canaisdigitais,